American Madison Keys enters the 2026 Australian Open as the defending champion after winning her maiden Grand Slam title last year, eight years removed from her first major final appearance at the 2017 US Open.
‘It feels really great to be back. Obviously amazing memories from last year and just lots of success at this tournament,’ Keys said ahead of the first round, where she’ll face Ukrainian Oleksandra Oliynykova. ‘It’s almost a pinch me moment that you dream of being a Grand Slam champion… and then being able to experience it.’
Keys’ title defense includes a potential third-round matchup against No. 22 Leylah Fernandez or qualifier Sloane Stephens, who defeated Keys in the 2017 US Open final. She could face a fourth-round matchup against No. 6 Jessica Pegula, a quarterfinal duel against No. 4 Amanda Anisimova and a semifinal against No. 2 Iga Swiatek.
Will Keys successfully defend her Australian Open title? That’s one of the many compelling storylines on the women’s side of the draw heading into the first Grand Slam of the calendar year:
Can Iga Swiatek complete career Grand slam?
Swiatek may be 24-years-old, but she already has six Grand Slam titles — four French Open titles, U.S. Open win and, most recently, a Wimbledon victory in July. The only major missing from her mantel is the Australian Open. The Polish tennis star could become the 11th woman to complete a career Grand Slam — where a player wins each of the four major tournaments — with a Australian Open victory. However, Swiatek’s United Cup performance has raised concerns about her form and fitness heading into the first major of the year.
Poland walked away with the country’s first-ever United Cup victory, but Swiatek suffered back-to-back losses to Switzerland’s Belinda Bencic and American Coco Gauff in the tournament. Swiatek racked up 36 unforced errors in her 6-3, 0-6, 3-6 loss to Bencic, who she could face in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open. She also lost to Gauff in straight sets, 6-4, 6.-2 Gauff has now beat Swiatek in four straight matches heading into Melbourne.
Swiatek made it as far as the semifinals twice at the Australian Open, most recently in 2025, when she was defeated by Keys despite having a one-set lead. Swiatek will have to quickly overcome self-inflicted wounds if she wants to make a title run. Her half of the draw isn’t going to make it easy with Elena Rybakina, Bencic and Naomi Osaka in her quarter alone. Swiatek, however, vowed to not look at the draw and said she ‘wants to be surprised after every match.’
Is Aryna Sabalenka still the player to beat?
Sabalenka, the world No. 1 and reigning two-time WTA Player of the Year, has experienced tremendous success throughout her career in Melbourne. Sabalenka is 28–6 all-time at the Happy Slam and is vying for her third Australian Open title in four years. After finishing 2025 with the most finals appearances (nine), most titles (four) and most match wins (63), Sabalenka’s 2026 season is already off to a promising start. She won her second consecutive Brisbane International title last weekend in a tune up event and her Australian Open draw fell her way. Sabalenka could meet No. 7 Jasmine Paolini in the quarterfinals and No. 3 Coco Gauff in the semis, but Sabalenka defeated both in straight sets at the 2025 WTA Finals in November and is widely considered a favorite. “I’m happy to be back. I have a lot of great memories,” she said.
Sabalenka’s only knock is her trouble finishing in Grand Slam finals last year. She made three of the four Grand Slam finals in 2025, but walked away with one title at the 2025 US Open — her fifth Grand Slam victory. She’ll be extra motivated this time around after her bid for an Australian Open three-peat fell short against Madison Keys last year, even though she said she’s ‘not really focusing on that result.’ If Sabalenka makes it to the final at Rod Laver Arena again, expect her to finish the job.
Belinda Bencic, Naomi Osaka: Can comeback kids make a run?
Bencic is an Olympic gold medalist, but she’s still in pursuit of her first Grand Slam title. She advanced to the fourth round of the 2025 Australian Open, matching her best finish, and made her first major semifinal since 2021 at 2025 Wimbledon. Bencic’s resurgence has carried over to this season, where she was named the 2026 United Cup MVP after turning in a 9-1 match record in Switzerland’s second-place finish to Poland. Her performance helped Bencic crack the top 10 in singles for the first time since giving birth to daughter Bella in April 2024. The path to her maiden Grand Slam title would be daunting, with a potential matchup against No. 5 Elena Rybakina in the fourth round, No. 2 Swiatek in the quarterfinals and a possible semifinal matchup against No. 4 Amanda Anisimova, No. 6 Jessica Pegula or defending champion Madison Keys depending on how the bracket shakes out.
Bencic’s not the only comeback kid. Naomi Osaka, a two-time Australian Open champion, returned to form last season following the 2023 birth of her daughter Shai and made her first major semifinal at the 2025 US Open since winning the Australian Open in 2021. The former world No. 1 plans to play ‘more aggressive’ and be ‘more assertive with my game’ in Melbourne and said she’s feeling 100% after battling a cough at the United Cup. Osaka opens the tournament against unranked Antonia Ruzio and could clash with No. 2 Swiatek in the fourth round. Swiatek leads the head-to-head, 2-1.
Is Coco Gauff’s serve fixed?
Gauff won the second major of her career at the 2025 French Open, but her serving and forehand woes snuck up on her toward the back half of the season. Gauff finished the 2025 season with a total of 431 double faults, the most among WTA Tour players. Gauff started working with biomechanics specialist Gavin MacMillan, who helped correct Sabalenka’s serve, and Gauff’s progress was on display in Team USA’s quarterfinal run in the United Cup. She breezed past Maria Sakkari and Iga Swiatek at the tournament to open 2026. Gauff thrives on hard courts and her ability to chase down any ball and stay in rallies is her superpower, which can get her back to the Australian Open quarterfinals, ‘the only non-win result I would be completely satisfied’ with, she said.
But the path won’t be easy. Gauff could face Venus Williams in the second round, with a potential third-round matchup against 2023 Wimbledon champion Markéta Vondroušova. In the fourth round, Gauff will likely meet fellow American Emma Navarro, who has defeated Gauff in their past two matches, including a win at the 2024 US Open. Gauff would have to get past No. 8 Mirra Andreeva or No. 12 Elina Svitolina in the quarterfinals to get out of her quarter of the bracket. Gauff is on Sabalenka’s side of the draw, setting up a potential 2025 French Open final rematch in the semifinals.
Can Amanda Anisimova make third straight Grand Slam final?
Anisimova was named the 2025 WTA Most Improved Player after advancing to the Wimbledon and U.S. Open final, the first two career Grand Slam finals. The finals didn’t go her way and Anisimova finished as a runner-up in both slams, but she said the experience has given her ‘a lot of confidence’ heading into the Australian Open. She’s made it to the fourth round in Melbourne three times, most recently in 2024. Is another Grand Slam final next? Anisimova would have to get past 2020 Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin in the third round. Kenin leads the head-to-head, 2-1, including their recent meeting on clay in 2025.
Rising stars to look out for at Australian Open
Here are some other rising stars that could be a dark horse at the 2026 Australian Open:
- Canadian Victoria Mboko: The 19-year-old started 2025 ranked No. 333 in the world and climbed her way to No. 17. Her meteoric rise began with a 2025 Canadian Open victory, which saw her down Grand Slam champions Sofia Kenin, Coco Gauff, Elena Rybakinaand Naomi Osaka en route to her first career title. She was named the WTA’s Newcomer of the Year and shows no signs of slowing down. She advanced to the Adelaide International final after taking out Madison Keys in the quarterfinals.
- Australian Maya Joint: The 19-year-old is the nation’s first woman seeded at the Australian Open since Ash Barty retired in 2022. She will face Czech Tereza Valentova in the first round and could face Elena Rybakina in the third round, but we can’t overlook the hometown crowd’s support for Joint.
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