Hard to buy into Lincoln Riley’s USC Trojans — even if he makes splashy hire

• If you didn’t know better, you’d take USC football quite seriously. You do know better, because you’ve seen Lincoln Riley’s USC defenses.
• Southern Cal is reportedly targeting Gary Patterson as its defensive coordinator.
• Lincoln Riley says he feels ‘fantastic’ about USC’s defense, ahead of pivotal 2026 season.

If you didn’t know better, you’d be taking Southern Cal football quite seriously. The Trojans signed a robust recruiting class. They’re returning their starting quarterback, Jayden Maiava, on the heels of a nine-win season.

By now, we do know better than to take a Lincoln Riley team seriously — at least, not as a national championship contender or even a Big Ten frontrunner. In nine seasons coaching blue bloods, Riley never assembled an elite defense. He’s rarely even produced a good defense.

On cue, USC’s season ended in an Alamo Bowl loss in overtime last month after the Trojans missed four tackles while TCU running back Jeremy Payne turned a check-down pass into a winning touchdown on 3rd-and-20.

A touchdown. On a check-down pass. On 3rd-and-stinkin’-20.

That’s Riley football.

That’s USC football.

That’s not serious football.

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In what could be a make-or-break season for Riley, he didn’t do nearly enough in the transfer sweepstakes to substantially upgrade USC’s defense. That’s after the Trojans ranked 13th in the Big Ten in total defense, despite not facing either Indiana or Ohio State.

USC will play the Hoosiers and the Buckeyes in 2026 amid a Big Ten schedule that also includes Oregon, Penn State and Washington.

So, how’s Riley feeling about that defense ahead of this pivotal season?

“I feel fantastic” about the defense, Riley said after the bowl loss. “You know, we’ve made obviously documented strides the last couple of years statistically, but those that really study the game and watch the way that we’ve played and the way that we’ve been able to improve, the arrow is just pointing straight up.”

Um, sure.

It’s true the Trojans improved defensively — partly because USC played some of the worst defense in the country his first two seasons. His defenses went from bad to something better than bad.

In losses to TCU, Illinois, Notre Dame and Oregon, the Trojans allowed a total of 140 points.

Which direction is that arrow pointing?

But, hey, he’s got a new hand to fix it. USC is reportedly targeting former TCU coach Gary Patterson as its defensive coordinator.

If Gary Patterson can’t fix USC defense, can anyone?

Patterson’s Horned Frogs had some toughness to them, but he’s not had an on-field coaching job since TCU parted with him in 2021.

Patterson is used to being in charge. Not since 2000 has he worked under a coach as a defensive coordinator. There’s no telling how this might go.

He’ll be the fourth defensive coordinator to work under Riley, including his third at USC. The last coordinator to have much success running a defense for Riley was Alex Grinch at Oklahoma in 2020.

Riley’s teams are, in a word, sawwwffft. Softer than milk chocolate on a summer day at Hermosa Beach.

That doesn’t win championships in this era. That didn’t win championships in previous eras, either.

Consider the past five national champions: Georgia (twice), Michigan, Ohio State and Indiana. Each had a top-10 defense. If you accused a defensive lineman on one of those teams of being soft, you might find yourself consuming meals through a straw.

When Riley coached Oklahoma in the Big 12, he built playoff squads thanks to his ability to develop star quarterbacks. His defenses routinely got exploited in playoff losses. He scooted out of Oklahoma before it joined the more rugged SEC, only to find himself stuck inside the nation’s best conference, the Big Ten.

Riley’s offenses are always good enough that he never delivers a truly bad season. That’s his secret sauce. He’s 9-for-9 delivering winning records throughout his career. He’s never won a playoff game.

At USC, he’s 35-18. His best year was his first. That would get Riley fired from LSU. Ask Brian Kelly about that.

To Riley’s credit, he signed a No. 1-ranked recruiting class loaded with four-star talent. One wonders where those players will be a year or two from now, if Riley doesn’t accelerate his performance. Take it from Indiana: National championships are won with grown men, many of them transfers.

Lincoln Riley faces pivotal season in USC tenure

Curt Cignetti offered proof that patience is a loser’s battle cry, but a bit of patience can still be rewarded. Mario Cristobal didn’t get Miami into the playoff until his Year 4 breakthrough.

Riley enters his fifth season after being hired to a 10-year contract. If you consider the idea of a top recruiting class joining a nine-win team that returns its quarterback, you might think the Trojans are poised to join Miami as a name brand ready to reclaim their place of power.

Peel back the surface, though, and comparing USC to the 2025 Hurricanes becomes difficult. Miami had a sturdy defense, complete with the nation’s fiercest pass rush. The Hurricanes excelled at getting off the field on third down.

That just doesn’t sound like a Riley team, does it?

Third-and-20. Check-down. Touchdown.

“We have the personnel to” play great defense, Riley told reporters on Dec. 30. “We’re on an upward trend.”

If you didn’t know better, you might believe that.

Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.