Indiana or Miami? Here are USA TODAY’s CFP national championship picks

It all comes down to this.

A long, thrilling and often chaotic 2025 college football season that began in late August in Ireland now has its national title matchup set, with No. 10 Miami taking on No. 1 Indiana in the College Football Playoff championship game on Monday, Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida (the Hurricanes’ home field).

As strange as it still feels to type this, the Hoosiers are the best and most complete team in the sport. Coach Curt Cignetti’s team is yet to lose this season, having bested any challenge that has been thrust at it over the past five months. Any doubts about Indiana’s championship mettle — most of which come from the name on its jerseys and the logo on its helmet, not the team itself — have been vanquished in the playoff, with a 38-3 throttling of No. 9 Alabama in the Rose Bowl and a 56-22 beatdown of No. 5 Oregon in the Peach Bowl. In both wins, quarterback Fernando Mendoza looked every part of a Heisman Trophy winner and potential No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick, throwing more touchdowns (eight) than incompletions (five).

The final thing standing in its way of a “Hoosiers”-style ending is Miami, the final at-large selection for the playoff’s 12-team field. The Hurricanes have shown they belong among the country’s best teams, with wins against No. 7 Texas A&M, reigning national champion No. 2 Ohio State and, most recently, No. 6 Mississippi. Miami’s defense has been stingy, holding the Aggies and Buckeyes to a combined 17 points and keeping the Rebels’ explosive offense in check for much of the game. Offensively, it has ridden the legs of running back Mark Fletcher Jr. and the dynamic playmaking of freshman wide receiver Malachi Toney.

Over the next week, the matchup will be broken down from every angle, with the analysis boiling down to a simple-yet-all-important question: who’s going to win this thing?

With kickoff still nine days away, here’s an early look at predictions for the College Football Playoff championship game from the USA TODAY Sports college sports staff:

College Football Playoff national championship predictions

Austin Curtright: Indiana 24, Miami 23

It’s wild to think Indiana was coming off a 3-9 finish in 2023 when it hired Curt Cignetti, who led James Madison from FCS to FBS during his tenure. The Hoosiers, one of the worst Power Four college football programs historically, have accomplished one of the greatest turnarounds of the modern era, regardless of if they defeat Miami in the national championship.

It won’t be easy for Indiana. Miami is playing its best football at the right time and has the most ferocious pass rush in the sport, holding Ole Miss’ high-powered offense to two touchdowns in the Fiesta Bowl. 

Ultimately, I trust Indiana’s veteran roster, along with Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who has the edge over opposing quarterback Carson Beck. Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor will make things tough for the projected No. 1 overall pick, though.

Give me the Hoosiers on a last-second score, resulting in an unprecedented title for the former Big Ten doormat-turned college football power of the future.

John Leuzzi: Indiana 27, Miami 21

Here’s a mind-blowing sentence to get started: It is Indiana’s national championship trophy to lose.

Shocker, I know. But with a roster that features not a single five-star recruit, the Hoosiers have looked like the most all-around complete team this postseason, and it would take a complete clean game (including no self-inflicted penalties) from Miami to pull off the upset.

That is not to say the Hurricanes will cause the Hoosiers some trouble, because I think they will. Where I can see this happening is with what got them to the championship game, and that is dominating the line of scrimmage on both ends of the ball.

Fernando Mendoza will deliver a late fourth-quarter, game-winning drive to ride off into the sunset (i.e., the NFL) with his storybook ending in front of the hometown crowd in Miami. Build that Curt Cignetti statue in Bloomington as well…if it isn’t underway already.

Ehsan Kassim: Indiana 34, Miami 14

Miami’s defense will have no answers for Fernando Mendoza and Indiana’s offense. The Hoosiers are a machine on both sides of the ball, and don’t make mistakes for opponents to capitalize on.

While the Hurricanes have made a miracle run as the first double-digit seed to the CFP championship game, the Hoosiers are clearly the team of destiny. Indiana will move to 16 straight wins with the win over Miami, coming just two years following a 3-9 season in 2023. 

Miami is a team that made a lot of mistakes against Ole Miss with penalties and turnovers. That’s not something Indiana does, but rather capitalizes on its opponents’ mistakes. 

Behind a strong opening drive from Mendoza, Indiana jumps out to an early lead and never relents the pressure on Miami, much as it did to Oregon in the CFP semifinal.

With Curt Cignetti leading the charge, Indiana wins its first national championship and is going to be a force for college football to deal with for years to come.

Kevin Skiver: Indiana 24, Miami 10

When an unstoppable force meets an immovable object, we find out which one of those things is actually true. In this case, the staunch Hurricanes finally budge and Indiana — yes, Indiana — stands atop the college football world when the dust settles.

Picking against Miami hasn’t done anyone any favors to this point, but Indiana has carved out a war path. It has met every stumbling block head-on. A long layover before the Rose Bowl? Not a problem, 38-3 over Alabama. A difficult rematch against Oregon? Try 56-22 in a game that saw Oregon score a garbage time touchdown to even make it that ‘close.’ Fernando Mendoza has been all but perfect, and his offensive line has neutralized everything in front of it.

That brings us to Miami. Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor are the best pass rushing duo Indiana has seen this year. But Indiana’s Joe Moore finalist line has given Mendoza all of the time he needs and then some to find Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr., not even to mention Kaelon Black and Roman Hemby in the running game. It’s pretty simple: Indiana has simply been better than everyone it has played this year. Why should that change in the final game of the season?

Matt Glenesk: Indiana 35, Miami 24

Miami’s swagger and physicality will test Indiana’s seeming invincibility. The Hurricanes’ pass rush will be the key because Fernando Mendoza has been absolutely surgical in two CFP games: eight touchdowns, five incompletions. Read that again. Eight touchdowns. Five incompletions. Miami’s run game should be able to keep the Hoosiers’ offense off the field, but Indiana’s efficiency doesn’t really rely on them needing the ball too much. As part of the nation’s largest alumni base, I can’t pick against Indiana. Having endured years of ineptitude, the layers of scar tissue are starting to heal as belief has turned into expectation. I expect Indiana to win every game now. And yes, that includes a national championship. Is this real life?

Craig Meyer: Miami 23, Indiana 20

Listen, I’m not about to have this be one of those clean sweeps that can get shoved in our face on social media if the massive underdog pulls off the stunner.

In all seriousness, though, Miami faces a massive challenge, but not an insurmountable one. The Hoosiers are the best team in the country and have looked like it throughout the season, particularly in two playoff games they’ve won by a combined score of 94-25. Still, there’s a path for a Hurricanes victory, narrow as it might be.

Miami is one of the few teams in the sport that can match Indiana’s excellence on both lines of scrimmage. Though it didn’t always look the part on a slippery field at the Fiesta Bowl against Ole Miss, it’s got the nation’s most ferocious pass rush with Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor, a duo that could cause some issues for Fernando Mendoza and the Hoosiers’ prolific passing attack. As they’ve done in the past two wins, the Hurricanes’ offense has the potential to mount long, sustained drives that keep Mendoza off the field.

There are countless other factors, matchups and scenarios that could lead to the Hoosiers completing their improbable journey to a national title. An Indiana run defense that’s allowing fewer than three yards per carry this season may very well bottle up Mark Fletcher Jr. Carson Beck could revert to the worst version of himself and turn the ball over at will, especially against a Hoosiers defense that made life hell for Oregon’s Dante Moore. For all of Miami’s pass-rushing prowess, Mendoza is as well-equipped as anyone to handle it.

But, hey, it’s the last game of the year. Can’t hold anything back now — especially when there’s the chance to pick an upset.